Modelling for disability: How does artificial intelligence affect unemployment among people with disability? An empirical analysis of linear and nonlinear effects

There is a growing debate among scholars regarding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the employment opportunities and professional development of people with disability. Although there has been an increasing body of empirical research on the topic, it has generally yielded conflicting findings. This study contributes to the ongoing debate by examining the linear and nonlinear effects of AI on the unemployment of people with disability in 40 countries between 2007 and 2021. Using the system Generalized Methods of Moments and panel smooth transition regression, the main conclusions are as follows. First, AI reduces the unemployment of people with disability in the full sample. Second, upon disaggregating the sample based on income level (high income/non-high income) and gender (men/women), the linear model only detects an inverse correlation between AI and unemployment among people with disability in high-income countries and among men, whereas it does not influence unemployment in non-high-income countries and women. Third, the panel smooth transition regression model suggests that the effects of AI on the unemployment of people with disability and among women are only observed once artificial intelligence interest search exceeds a specific threshold level. The effects of AI in non-high-income economies and among women are not significant in the lower regime, which confirms the nonlinear association between AI and the unemployment rate of people with disability. These findings have important policy implications for facilitating the integration of people with disability into the labor market.