A new model for epidemic prediction: COVID-19 in kingdom saudi arabia case study

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of
Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and
America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several
prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary
actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model
is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of
Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaksin other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model